It’s no secret that Hugo Chávez and Álvaro Uribe do not get along. On February 22, 2010, the two presidents engaged in a shouting match during a meeting of Latin American leaders, and little was accomplished. What followed was another promise to “speak like gentlemen” the next time around. 

With a long history of tension, a war in the Latin American region seems possible and maybe even imminent. Indeed, Mr. Chávez ordered his army to “prepare for war” with Colombia last November and sent 15,000 national-guard troops to the border. Colombia subsequently appealed to the United Nations and the Organization of American States for support and possible intervention. Venezuela has the support of Ecuador and possibly Cuba, and it could undoubtedly recruit members of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) to support its cause. Colombia, meanwhile, has limited support from the United States and little support from surrounding Latin American countries. The two countries are seemingly set up for military conflict in the region.

Both leaders have reason to be angry with each other. Mr. Uribe accuses Chávez of supporting the FARC Colombian guerrilla organization that has terrorized his country for decades. Although Mr. Chávez continues to deny his country’s involvement in the Marxist guerrilla movement, the evidence of his material support for FARC has led the international community to believe the contrary.

Mr. Chávez accuses Mr. Uribe of plotting to overthrow his leftist regime. In October of last year, the United States and Colombia entered into an accord which will allow a large U.S. military presence in Colombia. Despite the assurance that the United States will only allow 800 personnel to operate in Colombia, Mr. Chávez fears that this move will increase the risk of invasion. In 2008, the Colombian military sent troops into Ecuador to fight the FARC rebels, and there is a chance that it could do the same in Venezuela, this time with U.S. support.

While the Constitutional Court of Colombia denied a referendum last month to allow President Uribe a chance at a third term, Mr. Chávez’s antipathy is likely to carry over into the next administration this fall. All presidential hopefuls in Colombia have espoused similar policies to those of Mr. Uribe regarding corruption, U.S. relations, and, most importantly, eliminating FARC. Relations between the two countries are unlikely to improve with a new president.

However, there are several reasons why the world has no need to expect a war in the region any time soon.

First, things are going reasonably well for Colombia. The past eight years have seen a considerable decline in corruption, a weakening of FARC, and an increase in political involvement. Instigating a war in response to threats from Mr. Chávez would only reverse the progress that Colombia has made under Mr. Uribe’s administration.

Furthermore, while the recent U.S.-Colombian accord grants the United States military privileges in the country, it is unlikely that the U.S. would be willing to provide considerable support for a war with Venezuela. The United States has oil on its mind, and with Venezuela as number four on the list of oil importing countries, it is unlikely that President Obama will provide any support for Colombia besides a wag of the finger at Mr. Chavez.

Most importantly, 80% of Venezuelans oppose a war with Colombia, according to a recent poll from Datanálisis. Since Mr. Chávez’s Bolivarianism is highly dependent on popular support, the president would find it very difficult to keep his country stable while engaging in an unpopular war, one that he is likely to lose given the significantly larger and better trained army of Colombia. He would have to convince his followers and the several million Colombians living in his country that war is necessary for Venezuela’s protection.

The two Presidents mistrust each other. Colombians and Venezuelans, for the most part, do not get along. But war in the northern region of Latin America is not on the radar. Hopefully, these two leaders will finally learn to “speak like gentlemen” and recognize that they neither want nor expect their countries to go to war with one another.

Adeline Zensius graduated from BYU in 2009 and will pursue a Master’s of Public Policy at Georgetown University.